New swing state polling from CNN shows that Trump has no momentum and the elections in Wisconsin and Michigan are still moving toward a Harris victory.
In Michigan, Harris holds a lead over Trump by 48% to 43% among likely voters. Harris also leads Trump in Wisconsin, where 51% support her to 45% for Trump. But the race is tied in Pennsylvania (both with 48% support), the largest electoral prize of the three states and a central piece of either candidate’s hopes of winning the White House. All three states broke in Trump’s favor in 2016, but President Joe Biden won them in 2020.
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There is less support for independent and third-party candidates among those likely voters who express the highest motivation to turn out. Among those likely voters who say they’re extremely motivated to vote in Michigan, 51% support Harris to 45% for Trump. In Wisconsin, they break 52% Harris to 47% Trump, and in Pennsylvania, they divide 50% for Harris to 47% for Trump.
The Pennsylvania results look a little funky and the reason can be found in the methodology, “Likely voters include all registered voters in the poll weighted for their predicted likelihood of voting in this year’s election.”
They have weighted the poll likely toward Trump supporters. CNN also notes that their results look the same as three months ago, which suggests that they have weighted the results and not updated the polling model to account for the increase in women voting that we have seen in voting so far.
The tie in Pennsylvania seems to have been derived from pollster choices and doesn’t match other polls showing Harris leading the state.
The two big messages from this polling is that Trump has no momentum. Things are not breaking toward the ex-president, and Vice President Harris is in a good position close to election day.
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