Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia has moved North Carolina from “lean Republican ” to “toss-up.”
North Carolina voted for Barack Obama by a tiny margin in 2008—the first time since 1976 that the state had voted Democratic for president—but it moved back to the Republican column, backing GOP candidates for president by roughly 2, 3.5, and 1.5 points the last three elections, respectively. Polling there has been very tight of late, part of a broader improvement for Kamala Harris as she quickly became the Democratic presidential nominee in all but name just a couple of days following President Biden’s decision to end his reelection bid almost exactly a month ago.
There also has been a longer-running argument about the possibility that North Carolina might be a better target for Democrats than Georgia. This argument would have been very reasonable in past cycles but seemed odd during this one, given that Georgia had voted narrowly for Biden in 2020. As of now, Harris’s polling is very modestly better in North Carolina than Georgia. We do still think Georgia is likelier than not to vote to the left of North Carolina again in 2024, despite the polls.
Out of the swing states that Harris could win, North Carolina is the long shot. Biden won Georgia in 2020, and because of the larger African-American population in the state, Trump’s lead in Georgia might be a bit overinflated.
Based on recent electoral history, it is very possible that Harris performs better in Georgia than in North Carolina.
However, the fact that the Trump campaign thought that they had North Carolina locked up, and now they have had to campaign there book advertising time shows how much the election has changed.
Georgia is the only one of the seven swing states in which Trump has shown any lead. The rest of the swings are either tied or tilted toward Kamala Harris.
If North Carolina is seriously in play, Republicans could have a massive problem on their hands because if Trump can’t hang on to North Carolina, he will struggle to win the election.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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