Last updated on July 3rd, 2024 at 11:42 am
A battleground pollster who is completing a swing state survey says that the data shows Biden wasn’t hurt by the debate.
I am finishing my second battleground state poll post-debate and both surveys show the same thing: the debate had no effect on the vote choice. The election was extremely close and competitive before the debate, and it is still extremely close and competitive today.
The polls that have already been released have shown that Biden didn’t lose anything, and Trump didn’t gain anything, so if this data is correct, why are some Democrats and never Trump Republicans so anxious to force Biden out?
There are several possible reasons why people who are thought of as relatively logical and sane want to set the Democratic Party on fire and unleash a destructive wave of chaos that is likely to cost Democrats the election up and down the ballot.
The first explanation is baseless panic. There is now decades worth of academic research showing that debates have no impact on election outcomes. Debates has as much impact on election outcomes as presidential candidates doing guest appearances on Saturday Night Live. The polling data that is being released so far agrees with the research.
Debates are irrelevant, don’t matter, and it is worth discussing whether or not they are necessary.
If debates are held, but they don’t mean anything. why are we bothering? There has to be better ways to connect with voters, because given the one-third drop in debate viewership in 2024, televised debates doesn’t seem to be it.
Secondly, the charge to dump Biden appears to being led by white men. The Democratic Party is a majority female party. White men are not in charge. Even though Joe Biden is a white guy, he has not remade the Democratic Party in his impage.
White men haven’t been in control of the party for decades, and they really want to be in charge, so if they get push Biden and Harris out of the way, they think they could be the king and queen makers that they view themselves as.
Democrats are also possibly having some 2016 flashbacks. Some elite Democrats thought that the felony convictions would make Trump an easy win, but they were wrong.
In this deeply polarized country, Trump’s felony convictions don’t matter. Biden’s debate performances doesn’t matter. All that matters is voting and if Democrats stay the course and work together, they will be in a position to beat Trump in November.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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