Last updated on June 10th, 2024 at 04:47 pm
Trump’s conviction seemed to activate more Democratic voters against him, as the ex-president’s polling lead has vanished in the latest CBS News Poll.
According to the latest CBS News Poll, Biden and Trump are essentially tied in both the national popular vote and battleground states. Trump leads the popular vote by 50%-49%, and Biden leads in the battleground states by 50%-49%:
But what we do see is a few more Joe Biden voters activated out of opposition to Trump. His vote has become increasingly centered around anti-Trump sentiment, more so than affinity for Mr. Biden himself. Today, most of Mr. Biden’s voters say their main rationale is opposing Trump, and that’s up from March.
Whether that dynamic is enough to sustain Mr. Biden looms as one of the central questions of this campaign — a contest that today is essentially tied in likely voter preference, both nationally and across the collective battleground states.
Polling is very unreliable right now, so the exact numbers should be taken seriously, but what has changed is the momentum of the polling. All polls show Biden having momentum.
The reality of this election is that if Democrats come home to Biden and vote in the same numbers that they have been voting in since 2017, the President will likely win a second term. Trump needs a depressed Democratic turnout to have a chance at winning.
Donald Trump isn’t expanding his support and bringing new voters into the fold. Trump and Republicans have to hope that his MAGA base will be enough for him to win, and the only way that it will be is if Democrats stay home.
The problem for Republicans is that Donald Trump is a great get-out-the-vote tool for Democrats, many of whom will do whatever they have to do to vote against him.
The more voters see Donald Trump, the more they reject him, and if Trump fails at the debate in less than three weeks, this election is likely to keep swinging toward the incumbent Joe Biden.
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