While it is important to not take polls seriously at this time, the latest New York Times Poll shows momentum growing for President Biden.
The New York Times reported:
Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are now virtually tied, with Mr. Trump holding a 46 percent to 45 percent edge. That is an improvement for Mr. Biden from late February, when Mr. Trump had a sturdier 48 percent to 43 percent lead just before he became the presumptive Republican nominee.
Mr. Biden’s tick upward appears to stem largely from his improved standing among traditional Democratic voters — he is winning a greater share of voters who supported him in 2020 than he did a month ago. Then, Mr. Trump had secured the support of far more of his past voters compared with the president — 97 percent to 83 percent — but that margin has narrowed. Mr. Biden is now winning 89 percent of his 2020 supporters compared with 94 percent for Mr. Trump.
For months, the Biden campaign has been wrestling with an odd problem. The internal Biden polling showed that many voters didn’t believe that Republicans would nominate Trump for a third time. Democratic and Republican politicos have been expressing the belief for months that once Trump clinched his party’s presidential nomination, reality would set in for voters and his poll numbers would drop.
Trump’s polling lead has been viewed as a mirage based on an electorate that isn’t paying attention. It is only April and most of the electorate still isn’t paying attention, which is why faith should not be placed in any polling.
Interestingly, The Times also admitted in its article something that I pointed out previously, the specific polling on individual groups of voters is unreelable at this time, so no one should read much into one candidate or the other leading with certain groups of voters.
What should not be ignored is the overall trendline. Biden leads Trump in nine polls now. Biden also leads Trump in the polling average of all polls.
Don’t put much thought in the specific numbers until the election gets to the fall, but Trump isn’t leading in “all of the polls” as he likes to claim. The ex-president is losing. Democrats are coming home and they are with Joe Biden.
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