Dave Wasserman of The Cook Political Report projects that Donald Trump has defeated Nikki Haley and won the New Hampshire primary.
Wasserman posted:
I’ve seen enough: Donald Trump (R) wins the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary, defeating Nikki Haley (R).
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) January 24, 2024
Based on the initial precincts reporting, this isn’t going to be a total Trump blowout.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) January 24, 2024
Trump isn’t going to get the blowout that he wanted, but he is going to win, and it is expected that he will declare the Republican primary over.
However, in a contest where Trump was the de facto incumbent, his lack of a blowout win with an electorate that featured many independent voters is another canary in the coal mine that should suggest to the Republican Party that Trump has a big problem with moderate voters.
The real intrigue in New Hampshire was always going to be about the margin of victory. The odds are good that Trump’s margin of victory won’t be in the 20-30 point range.
Haley should stay close enough to Trump to justify remaining in the contest through her home state of South Carolina, but the question is, if Haley couldn’t beat Trump in New Hampshire, is there anywhere where she can beat Trump?
Right now, the answer looks like no.
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