The media continues to frame the 2024 presidential election around the idea that Trump is a strong candidate, but looking at the numbers reveals that Trump is weak.
Simon Rosenberg summed up the GOP’s Trump problem:
Trump is weak, not strong.
– 35% to 40% of Rs not supporting him nationally
– Majorities of Rs not with him in the early states
– GOP has meaningfully splintered, keeps losing elections
– Olympian negatives, will make it near impossible for him to win
– New Hampshire https://t.co/J5LZCA1Osb— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) January 4, 2024
There are a large number of Republicans who aren’t solidly behind Trump in early primary states. Trump is averaging 51% support in Iowa. In New Hampshire, Trump is averaging less than half of the vote.
To hear Trump tell it, and the media parrot it, Republicans are lined up behind Donald Trump. The more realistic explanation for Trump running away with the Republican nomination is that he has a solid hold on likely Republican primary voters, combined with the other candidates in the Republican primary field being completely uninspiring and underwhelming.
The Republican Party has gotten smaller under Donald Trump. The GOP has been reduced to its MAGA core. The media is more interested in playing up the horse race aspects of the 2024 election than the discussing the flaws of Donald Trump and how he is actually harming his party.
Trump is a weak candidate leading a divided party. While this doesn’t mean that President Biden and Democrats will be a landslide because America is so divided that all elections are close, it does suggest that Democrats have a structural advantage, which is one of the reasons why they continue to win elections.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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