Last updated on July 18th, 2023 at 02:06 pm
The latest NBC News poll shows Biden leading Trump in a head-to-head 2024 matchup, but the general electorate and Independent voters are very concerned about Trump’s indictments.
A combined 77% of GOP primary voters say the federal charges against Trump in the classified document case give them either minor concerns (14%) or no real concerns at all (63%).
That’s compared with 55% of all registered voters who say the charges give them either major concerns (47%) or moderate concerns (8%).
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In this hypothetical rematch, Biden enjoys advantages among women (55%-38%), voters 18-34 (65%-30%), Latinos (66%-26%) and Black voters (73%-20%), as well as independents (47%-33%) and those who “somewhat” disapprove of Biden’s job as president (50%-39%).
Trump, meanwhile, has the edge among white voters (51%-43%), men (51%-42%), whites without college degrees (60%-35%) and rural voters (68%-26%).
The Republican primary and the general electorate are two very different creatures
It is questionable whether the indictments are helping or hurting Trump in the Republican primary, because the data suggests that the Republican primary electorate is the same place that it has been for nearly eight years. By roughly a two to one margin, Republican primary voters support Trump.
The issue for Republicans is that the party’s primary electorate is so out of step with the general electorate that GOP are nominating candidates who can’t win in November.
Trump’s high water mark for general election support might be happening in 2023 when most of the general electorate is not paying attention. As Trump and his legal issues consume more of the spotlight in 2024, it is very posisble that his numbers will sink.
By nominating Trump, Republicans might be dooming themselves in 2024. The former president remains toxic to the general electorate, and right now, 2024 looks poised to be a replay of the Democratic win in 2020
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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