Last updated on July 18th, 2023 at 02:06 pm
The legacy media and the Republican Party are trying to add drama to the very early 2024 presidential contest, but according to new polling, President Biden leads the top three GOP presidential hopefuls.
Here are the head to heads from the latest UMASS Poll:
Biden’s support with black voters stays roughly the same whether he is running against DeSantis or Trump. Biden’s overall lead is mostly the same whether it is DeSantis or Trump on the Republican side.
The third-best polling Republican is way back at 4%, so let’s look at Biden versus Scott:
The difference in margin between the top three Republicans and Biden is that Scott makes black voters less sure about supporting Biden, but that is likely because voters don’t know much about Sen. Scott. There is also a higher percentage of voters who say that they would not vote if Scott were the Republican nominee.
Voter turnout would be highest for a Biden and Trump rematch because it not only turns out his supporters but motivates Democrats to flock to the polls to vote against him.
This is way too early polling and should be taken with a massive grain of salt, but the message that can be drawn from it is that incumbent presidents are difficult to defeat, and as long as the economy keeps heading in a positive direction, it might not matter who the GOP presidential nominee is because President Biden will be in a position to win.
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Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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