The final NBC News Poll before the 2022 midterms shows that Democrats have caught up to Republicans in voter enthusiasm and are favored slightly by voters to control Congress.
Among all registered voters, congressional preference is tied at 47%-47% — essentially unchanged from last month, when Democrats held a narrow 1-point edge, 47%-46%.
Yet what has changed in the poll is that Democrats have caught up to Republicans in election interest. An identical 73% of Democrats and Republicans express high interest, registering either a “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale.
In October’s NBC News poll, Republicans held a 9-point advantage in high voter interest, 78% to 69%, after Democrats had previously closed the enthusiasm gap following the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.
The Midterm Election Is A Toss Up
Republicans have been flooding the media with manipulated samples that are distorting the polling averages in key Senate races, but numbers such as early voting and voter enthusiasm tell a much different story,
Democrats are just as engaged as Republicans in the 2022 midterm election. They are not dejected and sitting at home. The electorate is unlikely to be what Republicans were hoping for.
The GOP always does better when the electorate is older, whiter, and more male.
Democrats are showing up and matching Republicans, which means that a Republican takeover of the House is not a given and also that Democrats have a good chance of keeping or expanding their Senate majority.
The election is up for grabs, and it will be won by the party that gets more of their voters to the polls.
A blue pushback has blunted the red wave.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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