The traditional Democratic Nevada firewall of Clark County showed up on Friday with a surge of Democratic votes.
The numbers:
Big mail win for Dems moves Clark firewall to about 29,000.
More on blog tomorrow. https://t.co/xCoY1GuYwa
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 5, 2022
Dems' mail margin lead actually grew to 25% today, one of the best so far this year. It seems that Others might be replacing Reps (and Dems some) as we get closer to election day. Could make Dem gains in mail the last few days even larger if this continues. pic.twitter.com/j1jKqRGEBP
— Dr. John R. Samuelsen (@JohnRSamuelsen) November 5, 2022
This is what I said about significant increases in young voters at higher rates than 2020 the last few days. Seems confirmed. Basically, it suggests EDay will be younger and more Dem than 2020. Not necessarily "normal", but not the same Rep heavy EDay.https://t.co/YKOtEUbWDx
— Dr. John R. Samuelsen (@JohnRSamuelsen) November 5, 2022
Clark County is the home of three-quarters of Nevada’s population. The county also leans heavily Democratic, so Democratic fortunes in Nevada can be consistently foretold by how big of a margin they pile up in Clark.
In the 2020 presidential election, the Democratic mail-in advantage was 90,000 votes. In the 2018 midterm that Democrats won, the mail-in advantage was 45,000.
Democrats increased their mail-in advantage by 25% in a day, and unlike in the 2020 election, Nevada mail-in ballots don’t have to be in by election day. In 2022, ballots have to be postmarked by election day, which means that ballots are expected to continue to arrive for up to a week after election day.
As has been predicted based on mail-in and early-voting data, younger voters are showing up. They are also voting later, and at least in Clark County, it looks like the election day turnout will be much less Republican than in previous elections.
There is also an expectation in many swing races around the country that younger voters will show up to vote, but they will vote on election day, so the electorate nationally could be younger and more Democratic-leaning in 2022.
Nevada has deadlocked Senate race that represents the best chance for Republicans to pick up a seat. If incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez-Mastro wins her reelection bid, it will mean that Republicans will have to run the table in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Georgia to win control of the Senate. A Democratic victory in any of these elections would mean that Democrats keep the Senate.
A win in Nevada will greatly increase the odds of Democrats keeping the Senate, and the shift in Clark County is great news for Democrats.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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