John Fetterman and Pennsylvania Democrats are running ahead of President Biden’s early vote margin in Pennsylvania, and nearly 70% of the people under 30 returning ballots are going for Democrats.
Tom Bonier of TargetSmart tweeted:
If Fetterman lost ground due to the debate, it's certainly not showing up in the early vote. In the past week the Dem margin, relative to the same point in 2020, just continues to grow. pic.twitter.com/mZVxrJjuRf
— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) November 1, 2022
But the most astounding element of the PA early vote? Voters under the age of 30 returning ballots thus far are +69.2% D. At this point in '20 that same age group was +51.9D.
— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) November 1, 2022
Whether it is polling data or mail-in ballots, there is no indication that Lt. Gov. Fetterman lost ground after the Pennsylvania Senate debate. A word of caution, those who follow the polls will likely see a flood of bad pollsters and their bad polls over the next week. Republicans have been flooding the media with polling since last week, so voters need to be careful with taking any polling data as gospel.
Republicans over the last few cycles have tried to flood the media with polls that contain some dubious assumptions about who the electorate is and will be as part of a strategic effort to create the perception of political momentum as the midterm campaign comes to a close.
In Pennsylvania, voter data suggests that Democrats are outperforming their 2020 numbers, which suggests that Republicans will have to have an even higher turnout on election day 2022 than they did in 2020 to win Senate and gubernatorial races.
That is not to say that Republicans can’t pull that sort of turnout off. Still, it is a risky strategy for the GOP to rely on a significant election day way to overcome a deficit of more than 400,000 mail-in votes, and that deficit is growing by the day.
The fact that Democrats in Pennsylvania outperform the record 2020 turnout is good news for candidates like John Fetterman and Josh Shapiro.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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