Voter interest is surging two weeks before the midterm as Democrats have taken back the lead on the generic congressional ballot.
NBC News reported on the new NBC News Poll:
For Democrats, President Joe Biden’s approval rating remains steady at 45%; congressional preference continues to be relatively even (with 47% of registered voters preferring Democrats to control Congress, versus 46% who want Republicans in charge); and “threats to democracy” is voters’ No. 1 issue for the third-straight NBC News poll.
For Republicans, the positive signs are that Biden’s approval with independents and swing-state voters is in the 30s and low 40s; that the GOP once again holds the enthusiasm advantage; and that Republicans lead in congressional preference among the smaller set of likely voters, 48% to 47%, though that’s well within the survey’s margin of error.
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The poll also finds 70% of all registered voters expressing high interest in the upcoming election — either a “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale — which is the highest percentage ever in the survey for a midterm election at this same point in time.
The NBC News Poll suggests that the New York Times poll that had so many Democrats worried was an outlier.
The data suggest that both Democrats and Republicans are highly engaged and that the midterm election is a toss-up. The election is close. There is not going to be a red wave or a blue wave. There are a series of close elections around the country that neither party is likely to totally sweep, so if that is the case, the election will look more like a mixed result that the mainstream media will struggle to fashion a narrative out of.
Democrats are not doomed. The election is close, and the outcome will hinge on which party’s voters are angry enough to show up in the biggest numbers.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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