A new poll shows Democratic Senate candidate Mandela Barnes leading Sen. Ron Johnson (R) 51%-44%.
The Marquette University Law School poll found:
In new Marquette Law School Poll, 51% of registered WI voters support Democrat Mandela Barnes, 44% support Republican Ron Johnson in US Senate race. In June @mulawpoll, it was Barnes 46% and Johnson 44%. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) August 17, 2022
What has happened in the nation since the June poll?
The Supreme Court overturned Roe. Gas prices have fallen, inflation is declining, and Ron Johnson opposed the Inflation Reduction Act.
Independents have abandoned Johnson:
Barnes has big Democratic support (95%) and Johnson has overwhelming Republican support (92%). Among independents, 52% support Barnes, 38% support Johnson. In June among independents, it was 41% for each of them.
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) August 17, 2022
The results are fairly static depending on different turnout models:
Different levels of turnout on possible Senate outcome: Among all registered voters, it’s Barnes 51%, Johnson 44%; among those certain or very likely to vote, it’s Barnes 52%, Johnson 45%; among only those who are certain to vote, it’s Barnes 52%, Johnson 45%. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) August 17, 2022
Ron Johnson is an incumbent senator in a purple state who has never been popular. Johnson’s current approval rating is 36%
Sen. Johnson has been out of step with the majority of Wisconsin voters for years. He is a COVID vaccine denier, Russian propaganda pushing Trump loyalist. Johnson recently said that he had no concerns about Trump stealing classified documents because Mar-a-Lago is secure.
If John Fetterman wins in Pennsylvania and Ron Johnson loses in Wisconsin, the midterm election will have been a disaster for Republicans.
If Ron Johnson loses in Wisconsin, Republicans will have no chance of taking back the Senate. The midterm election looks even, but the momentum is trending blue, and a late blue wave could prove the pundits and conventional wisdom wrong in November.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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