A new poll shows that 63% of voters would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports passing a law to protect Roe.
An Ipsos poll exclusive for Reuters, fielded May 3, 2022 after the leak of a Supreme Court draft decision challenging Roe v. Wade, finds that in the upcoming November elections, two-thirds of Americans (63%) would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports passing a law legalizing abortion, replacing Roe if it is struck down.
This is driven by the 78% of Democrats who are more likely to vote for this candidate, while just under half of Republicans state the same (49%). Independents stand in the middle of Democrats and Republicans, with 59% more likely to vote for a candidate who supports passing a law legalizing abortion. Over half of Americans are more likely to support a candidate who thinks abortion should be legal (59%), motivated by three-quarters of Democrats (74%).
When Democrats are motivated, Democrats show up to vote, and overturning Roe might be the biggest midterm motivator in years. The percentages of Republicans and Independents who also would be more likely to support a candidate who supports a bill protecting Roe is a giant red flag for Republicans.
It is not a coincidence that the number of Americans who would not be more likely to support a candidate who favors a federal Roe law lines up with the upper percentage of the Republican base in polling (roughly 37%). If the Supreme Court follows through and overturns Roe, the only people who will like this are baseline Republicans.
The Supreme Court could be triggering a blue wave if they follow through with their draft opinion.
The ruling would be the sort of election trajectory change that could reshape the political landscape and make the midterms a referendum on Roe, which would be bad news for Republicans.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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