Last updated on July 18th, 2023 at 01:43 pm
There could not ever be just one measure of Trump’s hold on the GOP as his own personal movement. The dynamic has always waxed and waned. But now there are definite signs that Trump’s waning power might well be irretrievably moving in one direction.
Citing National Journal’s Josh Kraushaar, Matt Lewis of the Daily Beast provided the most comprehensive data point list to date demonstrating Trump’s weakening grip:
First, Trump’s endorsed candidate, Sean Parnell, was forced to drop out of the U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania. Second, Trump’s endorsed U.S. Senate candidate in Alabama, Rep. Mo Brooks, is losing ground to a younger candidate named Katie Britt. Third, the much-hyped Trump-Bill O’Reilly tour kicked off with a lot of empty seats. And fourth, Trump’s endorsed candidate in a Texas special election, Susan Wright, was defeated in a race to replace her late husband.
All true and yet the list left doesn’t even cite one of the strongest indications, one that this writer covered recently in a Substack article, the battle between Trump and McConnell regarding the debt ceiling and the nation defaulting:
The two clashed during this week’s vote on a deal with the Democrats to not have the United States government default. McConnell was thinking ahead to next year’s election and how awful it would look if the Republican senators threw the country into even greater financial chaos. Trump would just assume the country burn to the ground, so long as it is pinned on Biden.
Despite the fact that McConnell only obtained ten of the fifty possible votes, the ten needed to make the agreement, one gets the sense that the “ten” was contrived, “just enough.” It is more likely half the GOP Senate would have ignored Trump and done what was best for the GOP caucus, which was to not have the nation’s default pinned on GOP Senators, and that half would have voted for the agreement if needed. The agreement infuriated Trump to the point that he called for McConnell to step down as leader. The call went ignored, as in almost literally ignored.
Lewis notes that Sarah Palin had once captured the Tea Party’s loyalty until one day it seemed to vanish overnight. Trump’s power won’t vanish overnight. Trump is not Palin, but he faces the same underlying issue:
Now, it’s true that Palin did not possess Trump’s resources or media savvy (nor was she president), but her prime shelf life lasted for about four years (2008-2012). At age 75, Trump is on year seven of largely dominating the news. How long can he keep it up? At the end of the day, Trump faces the same existential threat we all do: mortality. In his case, this means both his literal and political life.
Indeed, there is an assumption that Trump will run for president again in 2024 and that he will most certainly win the Republican nomination. Trump is giving every indication that he’s running, but his pronouncements and even actions are near meaningless as to the ultimate decision. Trump must act as though his candidacy is preordained to keep the money coming in (and he needs the money) and to keep whatever grip he may have over the party. If he gave any indication that he was wavering in the decision to run again, that actually would result in an overnight 50% decline in power.
And, of course, none of this is happening in a vacuum. The country is just now prying the door open on Trump’s role in the “rigged” claims in 2020 and his role on January 6th. The Select Committee’s findings disclosed on Monday night were not a good look for Trump. Whether the Select Committee’s findings ever mean much to the MAGAs remains to be seen. (If DOJ ever showed some interest, that might create an entirely different situation). But one thing is clear. The Select Committee’s findings will certainly not help Trump. The only question remains the degree to which the findings will hurt Trump.
It does feel “real” this time. Trump’s power over the GOP as his to control does seem to be in decline, very much to his detriment, but perhaps to the GOP’s gain.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/mark-meadows-personal-cellphone-is-becoming-a-personal-hell?ref=home
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