An initial look at the Census data reveals larger than expected urban numbers and weaker rural numbers, which suggests that Trump’s Census rigging may hurt Republicans.
Strong Urban And Weak Rural Numbers In The New Census
Early read: based on the strong urban and weaker rural numbers I'm seeing, this is a *much* more favorable Census count than minority advocacy groups/Dems had feared.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 12, 2021
America’s White Population Dropped By 2 Points:
Breaking: actual 2020 Census results…
White: 57.8% (full two points lower than estimates)
Hispanic: 18.7%
Black: 12.1%
Asian/Other: 11.4% https://t.co/GBPzE89dcx— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 12, 2021
Georgia is now likely a majority-minority state:Lo
Some notable state data-points: Georgia just 50.1% non-Hispanic white, and probably majority minority by now
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) August 12, 2021
Lots of states with higher than expected non-white counts:
Fascinating demographic breakdown by state from Census Bureau. Lots of states w/ higher-than-expected non-white counts, including FL/GA/NJ/NY now nearly 50%+ non-white. pic.twitter.com/DavJeI2qbM
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 12, 2021
Trump Tried To Rig The Census For Republicans, But He May Have Cost His Own Party
None of the Census data that I listed above is good news for Republicans, who hoped that the Census would take away seats in blue states and districts and hand them to the GOP’s rural strongholds.
Instead, what appears to have happened is that urban growth in blue counties has exploded, and rural white America, which is the backbone of the Republican Party, continues to shrink.
Trump’s conspiracies and complaints about the government may have driven the Census response rate down in rural areas.
Democrats and minority advocacy groups were worried that the Census would be a nightmare for them, but it is looking a lot better than they expected. People in blue areas listened, and they turned in their Census forms to such a degree that New York might keep all of their House seats.
The midterm is still going to require a lot of work for Democrats to keep the House, but Trump’s Census rigging looks like it failed.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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