white evangelicals are declining in the US
A new study showed that the number of white evangelicals in the United States dropped from 23% to 14.5% since 2006, and this bad news for the GOP.
Aaron Blake of The Washington Post reported on a new study from the Public Religion Research Institute:
While this group made up 23 percent of the population in 2006 — shortly after “values voters” were analyzed to have delivered George W. Bush his reelection — that number is now down to 14.5 percent, according to the data.
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But PRRI’s data suggest that, even within the GOP, White evangelicals are on the decline: White evangelicals have gone from 37 percent of the GOP in 2006 to 29 percent in 2020.
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Just as important is the age disparity. While 22 percent of Americans 65 and over are White evangelicals, the number is just 7 percent for those between 18 and 29 years of age.
Republicans have been relying on the white evangelical vote since the 1980s. The Republican domestic platform on social issues remains driven by white evangelicals, but as those voters become a smaller portion of the electorate, the GOP catering to their beliefs is a losing proposition.
Fewer white evangelicals mean fewer GOP base voters, which results in losing elections.
A recent study of 2020 voter files showed that the base of the Republican Party is voters over 75 years old, and they are a declining population. The backbone of the white evangelical movement is over age 65.
The same pattern is repeating itself, by sticking with Trump and repeating what is not working, the Republican Party is accelerating its own decline. The Republican response to these demographic realities is to try to rig elections to prevent people who more likely to vote for Democrats from voting, but this is a finger in the dyke strategy.
The dam is breaking all around them, and soon Republicans may find themselves swept away.
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