Last updated on July 18th, 2023 at 12:18 pm
The gender gap has widened in Florida over the past month, which has resulted in Joe Biden opening up a 4-6 point lead over Trump.
According to the new Monmouth University Poll of Florida as provided to PoliticusUSA:
Among all registered voters in Florida, the race for president stands at 50% for Biden and 45% for Trump. Another 1% support Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian), less than 1% back Howie Hawkins (Green), and 2% are undecided. In different likely voter models+, the race stands at 51% for Biden and 45% for Trump in a high turnout scenario and 50% to 46% with lower turnout.
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The gender gap has widened in the past month. Biden leads among women by 60% to 37% (versus 53% to 41% in September) and Trump leads among men by 54% to 39% (versus 49% to 46% last month). The Democrat maintains a large advantage among voters of color (68% to 23%), although his lead is smaller among Latino voters specifically (58% to 32%). These findings are virtually identical to Monmouth’s September results.
The media can get too hung up on the top-line number. The important point to take away from the poll is the trajectory. Joe Biden is closing strong, as the same coalition that powered Democrats women, African-Americans, and suburban white voters are solidly behind Joe Biden.
The early voting data suggests that we can throw out polls based on low turnout models. This is going to be a high turnout election in Florida and across the country. Trump’s lead with men may not be enough to offset Joe Biden’s strong support from women.
Trump’s insistence on holding multiple rallies a day is backfiring on him as his comments about women are pushing more voters away.
Donald Trump bet that his white male base would carry him to victory in Florida, but might be women who hand the state to Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.
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