Last updated on July 18th, 2023 at 12:10 pm
The first post-Republican convention poll is out, and it shows Trump still trailing Joe Biden by six points with Biden at 50%.
The Morning Consult Poll found:
NEW POLL: @realDonaldTrump pulls closer to @JoeBiden after #RNC2020, nearly halving a 10-point deficit to 6 points.
Read more here from @eyokley: https://t.co/3pyNu63wGg pic.twitter.com/jqdZzomlgn
— Morning Consult (@MorningConsult) August 29, 2020
Nate Cohn pointed out that Biden leading by six is not a great number for Trump:
Anyway, this is all an exercise. Who knows what the post-convention polls will look like in a week. And even then, we'll still have to wait longer before we see whether any movement persists.
Bottom line: we won't have a great sense of where we're at until 9/14 or so— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) August 29, 2020
Nate Silver agreed and said that Biden was up by 8 before the conventions, so Trump’s “bounce” is really 2 points:
Morning Consult, for instance, generally had the race at about Biden +8 before the conventions. Then that gets up to +10 after the DNC. Now it's +6. So does that reflect a 4-point bounce for Trump? I'd say no; it's more like a 2-point bounce + a small Biden bounce wearing off.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 29, 2020
After the Republican convention in 2016, Trump led Hillary Clinton by four points in the polls, so the change over the last four years is a ten-point drop for Trump. The President’s “bounce” is also within the poll’s margin of error, so it is entirely possible that time and other polling will reveal no bounce at all.
After nearly a full term in office with not a single day over 50% approval in an objective poll, the cake is already baked for Trump. Forty-four percent support is his high end, and his floor is in the low thirties.
Trump’s polling numbers have been relatively static, and the Republican convention appears to have done nothing substantive to move the needle in Trump’s direction.
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Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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