Last updated on July 18th, 2023 at 12:05 pm
A new Monmouth University Poll of Pennsylvania revealed that Joe Biden is performing better than Hillary Clinton and beating Trump in swing counties.
Via the Monmouth University Poll as provided to PoliticusUSA:
Among all registered voters in Pennsylvania, Biden is supported by 53% and Trump by 40%, with 3% saying they will vote for another candidate and 4% who are undecided. Biden is in a relatively stronger position among his fellow Democrats (93% to 1%) than Trump is among Republican voters (84% to 12%). Biden also enjoys a wide margin among independent voters (54% to 33%).
Biden has the advantage among voters under 50 years old (60% to 29%) as well as voters age 65 and older (52% to 42%). Trump has an edge among voters between 50 and 64 years old (56% to 43%). White voters without a college degree also prefer the incumbent (55% to 39%) while the challenger leads among white college graduates (61% to 34%) and voters who are Black, Hispanic, Asian or from other racial groups (76% to 16%).
Biden is doing especially well in ten counties where the vote margins were closest in the 2016 presidential election. The Democrat currently holds a 54% to 35% lead among registered voters in these swing counties*, which are concentrated in a swath that runs from the Philadelphia suburbs into the northeast region where the candidate grew up. The poll also finds that Biden racks up a huge margin in four large counties that went solidly for Hillary Clinton in 2016 (68% to 26%), while Trump leads in the remaining counties that he won handily four years ago (55% to 40%).
Pennsylvania voters are worried about a secret Trump vote that isn’t showing up in the data and they are still evenly divided on who will win the state, but it is fair to say that at this moment, Donald Trump has a massive problem in Pennsylvania.
Trump’s problems are threefold. Biden is leading with voters over age 65 in the state. Biden is performing better in the swing counties than Trump, and the former vice president has also cut into Trump’s margin in the counties that he won easily in 2016.
Joe Biden is from Pennsylvania. He has spent years laying the groundwork for his campaign in the state. Biden was always going to do well in the Keystone State, but if he keeps his lead over Trump in double digits, Pennsylvania will not be a possibility for Trump in November.
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Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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