Last updated on July 18th, 2023 at 11:55 am
The Economist crunched data from various studies and found that a moderate would be the party’s best chance to defeat Donald Trump in November.
This research suggests, then, that Mr Biden could perform better than his competitors against Mr Trump. He is more moderate than Mr Sanders, so both more likely to attract swing voters and less likely to motivate Republicans to vote against him. His strength with both black and racially conservative white voters could make a big difference in swing states. Recent polling from the New York Times and Siena College suggests that 6% of the electorate would vote for Mr Biden—but not for Elizabeth Warren—against Mr Trump.
His advantage is evident in polls. According to The Economist’s analysis of publicly released polling data, Mr Biden performs better against Mr Trump than his competitors, nationwide and in swing states. Although polls of the general election conducted this early before a contest are not perfect, they are still helpful.
Mr Biden is not faultless. He is uninspiring on the stump and in debates. His Washington ties may inspire resentment from voters skeptical of elites. His candidacy would also represent a safety-first strategy for the Democrats at a time when many in the party desperately want to push a much more progressive economic, racial and social agenda. Yet for all that he still appears to be the Democrats’ best option in a contest against Mr Trump.
Trump is attacking Biden because he is the Democrat who poses the biggest threat
Joe Biden is the example used in the article, but the same principle applies to all of the moderate Democrat. Trump is extreme. The formula for beating a political extremist isn’t to navigate to the opposite extreme.
Trump has abandoned the political middle, and it would be a foolish mistake for Democrats to believe that they could nominate any of their candidates and beat Trump. If Trump runs against someone on the far left, he will wrap himself in patriotism, and paint his opponent as the extremist.
Election Day turnout will be smaller because people in the middle will stay home instead of choosing between a candidate on the right, and a candidate on the left. A base election helps Trump and the Republican Party.
A moderate can beat Trump with a promise to end the crazy and bring the presidency and the nation back to normal. Beating an incumbent president is difficult, but according to the research, a moderate gives Democrats their best chance to win in 2020.
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Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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