Last updated on September 25th, 2023 at 02:11 pm
Kamala Harris surged to second place as Joe Biden stayed in first, Elizabeth Warren moved to third and Bernie Sanders sunk to fourth in a new CNN poll.
The poll, conducted after the two-night debate, finds 22% of registered voters who are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents backing Biden for the party’s presidential nomination, 17% Harris, 15% Warren and 14% Sen. Bernie Sanders. No one else in the 23-person field tested hits 5%.
That represents a 10-point decline in support for Biden since the last CNN poll in May, while Harris, of California, has posted a 9-point increase, and Warren, of Massachusetts, has boosted her support by 8 points. No other candidates have seen significant movement since the last poll.
Harris’ numbers follow a strong showing on the second night of the debates. Among those who watched or followed news coverage about them, 41% say Harris did the best job in the debates, well ahead of the 13% who say Warren had the best performance and 10% who said Biden did. Among those who say they watched all or most of at least one night of debates, Harris’ showing is even stronger: 46% say she did the best job, 19% Warren, 8% Biden and 5% each named South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and former secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro.
Here is the full rundown:
New @CNN poll:
Biden 22%
Harris 17%
Warren 15%
Sanders 14%
Buttigieg 4%
Booker 3%
O’Rourke 3%
Klobuchar 2%
Castro 1%
de Blasio 1%
Gabbard 1%
Yang 1%
Bennet <1%
Delaney <1%
Gillibrand <1%
Hickenlooper <1%
Inslee <1%
Moulton <1%
Ryan <1%
Swalwell <1%
Williamson <1%
Bullock 0%— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) July 1, 2019
Warren and Harris are on the rise
Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris each had the best nights of their respective debates, and their standing in the poll reflects their debate performances. Warren has been on the rise for a few months, and she is sustaining her momentum. Kamala Harris’ move up the polls reflects her debate performance and it remains to be seen whether this is just a short term bump or a real surge for her campaign.
Warren and Harris look like the new top tier with Joe Biden, and they are the two major winners in the first round of polling.
Joe Biden needs to do better and Bernie Sanders is sliding
Joe Biden’s debate performance wasn’t enough to cost him the top spot, but the shift in his polling suggests that his support is soft, and at least a third of his supporters are open to another candidate. Biden needs to do better at the second debate in Detroit at the end of July, but his issues aren’t nearly as grave as Bernie Sanders. Sen. Sanders was passed by both Warren and Harris, although it is close, and if this dynamic plays out in the early states, Sanders will fall below the threshold to receive delegates.
The Democratic nomination is not a foregone conclusion for Joe Biden. If he wants to be the nominee, he will have to be sharper than he was during the first debate.
The Early States Matter National Polls Don’t
Unless Sen. Harris can translate her national poll success to the early voting states, none of this will matter. If Harris begins to surge in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, the Democratic race will be shifting. At this moment, it is difficult to know if national polls are measuring shifts in support or reactions to media coverage.
Presidential primaries aren’t national elections, but Kamala Harris is on the rise, and the rest of the top tier should be on notice.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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