Last updated on July 18th, 2023 at 11:30 am
The first post-debate poll shows Sen. Kamala Harris getting a bump and Biden and Sanders remaining steady in the Democratic primary race.
The Morning Consult/FiveThirtyEight poll found:
Among those who watched some or all of the debates, 46% said Harris won the debate, 20% said Biden, 17% Sanders, and 9% said Buttigieg.
Among all likely Democratic primary voters:
– The debate boosts Harris’s standing: Her favorability grew 10 points, from 56.2% to 66.9%. Her name ID also grew 9 points, from 82% to 91%.
– Biden’s favorability remains steady: Despite last night’s confrontation with Harris, Biden’s favorability remained stable as his favorable marks went from 76.5% to 75.6% and unfavorable marks went up 3 points from 16.1% to 19.1%, within the poll’s margin of error.
– Sanders reaps little benefit: His favorability ratings stayed within the margin: Favorable: 74.3% to 76.3%, Unfavorable: 17.6% to 17.5%.
– Buttigieg sees jumps in name ID, favorability: His name ID increased 14 points from 70% to 84% while his favorability grew 9 points, from 44.7% to 54.1%.
The Democratic primary field is unlikely to change much
Judging from the reaction of the polled audience, Sen. Harris is going to get a polling bump out of the debate, but those who support Biden and Sanders are likely to remain with their chosen candidates. The poll only covered the second night of the debate, so it will be interesting to see where Sen. Elizabeth Warren is going to fit in. It is unlikely that Harris will move ahead of Biden and Sanders, but she could be in a tight race for third with Elizabeth Warren.
The debate bump for Harris might not be as large as her supporters are hoping for, and the damage to Biden could be minimal. Biden and Sanders are known candidates. Their support could be baked in, and they may not move from the top of the polls until voters start casting ballots in 2020.
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Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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