U.S. Democratic presidential candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden addresses union workers at the Teamsters Local 249 hall during his first public event since announcing his bid for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, U.S. April 29, 2019. REUTERS/Aaron Josefczyk
Last updated on September 25th, 2023 at 02:10 pm
Joe Biden got a six-point bounce from his presidential campaign, while Bernie Sanders dropped two points, and Pete Buttigieg saw his momentum stop in new Democratic poll.
According to the latest Morning Consult poll of Democratic primary voters, “Biden moved from 30% of the Democratic primary vote share to 36% following his announcement last week. The six-point gain ties Bernie Sanders for the largest single week uptick since Morning Consult began tracking the Democratic primary. 38 percent of women have Biden as their top choice, compared to 33 percent of men. Among black women, Biden gets 47 percent of the vote compared to 32 percent of white women.
Biden leads Sanders with all demographics with his smallest lead being eight points (32%-24%) among men. This is the second week in a row that support for Bernie Sanders has decreased by multiple points in the poll. Joe Biden is clearly getting a bounce, but the concern among the Sanders campaign should be that the Senator from Vermont has not caught fire as he did in 2016, and has not been able to get above 30% support in any poll. The Sanders base nationally is right around 20%, and it isn’t moving.
For Biden, this was expected. His campaign launch has exceeded what many thought he would be able to accomplish. Biden’s decision to come out swinging at Trump looks smart because Democratic voters are primed and ready to face Trump in November.
Mayor Pete Buttigieg has a great five-week run where he gained support, but this week Buttigieg dropped a point and fell back to 8%. It is not a coincidence that the entry of Biden into the race stalled Buttigieg. Biden’s entry also took the national media attention that fueling Buttigieg’s rise away from the campaign. Buttigieg’s next opportunity to climb up the polls may not come until the two nights of Democratic primary debates in late June.
Joe Biden looks to be a stronger frontrunner than many in the media assumed. Bernie Sanders has to make some adjustments because his campaign is showing signs of losing ground. If the current trajectory continues, Sanders may need to win early to prove that he is a legit contender for the nomination. Pete Buttigieg has a bright future, but his burst up the polls may be out of steam, and the rest of the bloated field is flat, with Kamala Harris being the only other candidate who has separated herself in the upper tier.
It is early, but the rough contours of the 2020 Democratic primary are taking shape.
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