Voters show up to vote at a voting place for the midterm election in Detroit, Michigan, U.S. November 6, 2018. REUTERS/Rebecca Cook
The initial round of midterm exit polling has been released and it shows Trump and the Republican Party underwater, and the midterm electorate matching 2008 electorate.
NBC’s Steve Kornacki and Chuck Todd broke down the data:
Let’s get to the big one here, presidential job rating is at 46%, 46% is at the danger zone. Republican pollster speculated maybe it will go up a point or two and become a competitive night. The national exit poll shows — 44, 2 points lower.
So 44 approval, 54 disapproval. And also when you break it down, strongly disapprove sits at 47%.
Let’s put this in a little perspective. I believe 1996 Bill Clinton had an 84% job rating and in 2010 Barack Obama had a 47% job rating. This would put him below both of them, and I’m thinking approximately 50 and 60-seat loss respectively.
I think Republicans this year, and this is rough, the relation between the approval rating and exact number of seats but I think Republicans throughout the year were thinking get it to at least 45, in an ideal world 46, 47, and then you’re in fighting chance territory. 44, I will put it this way, 44 is a touch lower, a couple touches lower they were talking about this year. Although it is a little higher than it was around labor day. But it’s not in the zone I think they were hoping it would be today.
Here’s another thing, the electorate, the makeup of the electorate ethnically. This is a very familiar electorate to me. It was the presidential electorate in 2008, that was 72% white and 28% nonwhite. That is what this electorate is, which would make it the least white midterm electorate I think ever.
Video:
For years, Democrats have been trying to get their voters to show up, and it looks like they did in 2018. This midterm electorate is most diverse in history. Democrats have a positive 50%/46% approval rating with the electorate, while Republicans are underwater 43%-54%. The difference in the favorability ratings between the two parties roughly matches the generic polling lead for Democrats at (+7).
Election night could be a disaster of even bigger than imagined proportions for Trump and the Republicans. For Democrats, this could be the midterm turnout that they have been dreaming of for the last ten years.
These exit poll numbers are a great omen for Democrats.
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