A mere few weeks ago following the contentious battle over Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court confirmation, midterm election polling showed an increasingly competitive political environment.
But something has happened in the final days of this campaign that should terrify the Republicans: Polls are breaking hard for the Democrats on the eve of Tuesday’s election.
As FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver pointed out on Monday, “The single most terrifying bit of poll-related data for Republicans” heading into the election is that “Democrats made gains in a pretty diverse array of districts” at the tail end of the campaign.
As he pointed out, that “might lead one to wonder what’s happening in the districts that *haven’t* been polled recently.”
This is the single most terrifying bit of poll-related data for Republicans, in that Democrats made gains in a pretty diverse array of districts, which might lead one to wonder what’s happening in the districts that *haven’t* been polled recently. https://t.co/Os8kc9QqoX
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 5, 2018
According to a new poll released today by CNN, Democrats have a 13-point lead over Republicans in the generic ballot.
And it’s not just the House that is looking better and better for Democrats. Recent Senate polling shows Democrats becoming increasingly competitive, even though the states are much more favorable to Republicans.
As CNN’s Harry Enten pointed out a short time ago, a new survey out of Mississippi shows the Democratic candidate winning a plurality of the vote in a three-way race.
If that contest goes to a run-off, it could open the door to a Democratic majority in the Senate – something nobody thought would even be a discussion in 2018.
I don’t think this is where it will end up, but this would legit open the door to a Dem majority if McDaniel snuck into the runoff with Espy. https://t.co/svrMGXfsF5
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) November 5, 2018
Texas is still in play
It’s not just the typical swing districts that are increasingly in play for Democrats. Silver also pointed out that the most two recent polls in Texas show a statical tie among Ted Cruz and Beto O’Rourke in their Senate battle.
The stat guru said that, believe it or not, Texas didn’t have enough polling toward the end of the campaign.
I’m not kidding about this, at all. Also note that the 2 most recent polls showed a tie and Cruz’s lead down to 3 points, although note that the former poll was from a D-affiliated group.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 5, 2018
Given the surge in early voting in Texas and the late break for Democrats across the board, O’Rourke could be closer to pulling an upset than they might think. A look at the polling shows that the race has been tightening for weeks.
Screengrab via FiveThirtyEight.com:
With that said, Texas is Texas, and Cruz likely still has the edge over O’Rourke heading into tomorrow’s contests.
Note to Democrats: You still have to vote
At the end of the day, there are signs for Democrats to be optimistic heading into Tuesday’s elections – but that doesn’t mean they should sit back and be comfortable.
There are a ton of races on the map where the Democratic and Republican candidates are within a few percentage points of each other. These races will decide which party controls the House of Representatives, the Senate, and governorships all across the country.
The one lesson Democrats should have learned two years ago is not to be satisfied until every last vote is counted. Now isn’t the time to rest; it’s the time to vote.
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