Latinos appear to be energized and have joined other demographics in putting up record engagement numbers for the midterm election.
According to early-vote totals compiled by Political Data, Inc., Latino turnout in Southern California’s most competitive House contests is already far outpacing 2014 — even equaling 2016’s presidential-year turnout in some cases. At this point in 2014, for example, Latinos in CA-25 had cast less than 11 percent of all ballots; right now, that number is hovering around 15 percent, just like in 2016. In CA-39, Latinos’ early vote share has grown from 12.2 percent four years ago to 16 percent today — less than half a point shy of the 2016 benchmark. And Latino voting levels have increased in CA-45, CA-48, and CA-49 as well. (PDI compiles their figures using lists of voter surnames and “country or state of origin” data on registration forms.)
Such across-the-board increases in Latino turnout jibe with election results from earlier this year. In June, Latinos made up 21.2 percent of the primary electorate in California’s 39th Congressional District — a nearly eight-point jump from 2014. Subsequent reports by UCLA’s Latino Policy and Politics initiative concluded that the “Latino vote increased more than any other demographic in Los Angeles County from June 2014 to June 2018” and that “in Orange County, ballots cast in majority-Latino precincts were up over 2014 numbers by as much as a 245 percent.” And California isn’t alone: a new analysis by University of Florida Professor Daniel A. Smith finds that Latino early vote there has tripled in 2018 compared to 2014.
In Texas, Hispanic voter turnout is up 214%, which showed that the mobilized Latino isn’t limited to California.
There are three major Republican-held contested House races in California. Unlike a presidential election year, Democrats don’t need a national Latino voter surge to be successful, but what has changed is that Democratic Party has done a much better job with recruiting Latino candidates and Latino voter outreach than they have done in previous years.
It is debatable whether or not signs of a Latino wave will be visible in the national election results, but the midterm is not a national election. If Democrats successfully mobilize Latino voters to turn out on a district or state basis, it will flip seats and lead to big Election Night for the Democratic Party.
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