The top of the Republican ticket is bombing in swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, which has set off a chain reaction helping Democratic candidates down the ballot.
The New York Times reported:
Republican leaders are increasingly worried that their candidates for governor and Senate are in political trouble across Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and other states that the party prizes, and that the difficulties could spill into House races that the G.O.P. needs to win in November to keep control of the chamber.
….
The Republican troubles in these states reflect a confluence of factors: outgoing governors with baggage and nominees with limited charisma and appeal; Democratic advantages in fund-raising and on the key issue of health care; voter intensity fueled by opposition to President Trump; and a rival slate of Democratic candidates, particularly for governor, who are closing the fall race in a strong position.
Bad Candidates + No Money + Trump = Big Problems
The inability of Republicans to attract good candidates to Trump’s Republican Party is coming back to haunt them in swing states. Republicans have a crop of bad candidates at the top of the ticket and are getting blown out in key states like Pennsylvania and Michigan. Since Democrats don’t have to worry about the top of the ticket, they have been able to pour resources into down-ballot House and state legislative races.
The success at the top is setting off a chain reaction that is helping Democrats in competitive US House and state legislature races.
With Republicans directing their resources into protecting the Senate, there is less money to help other candidates. Republicans are stretched thin, and Trump is gobbling up cash for his reelection campaign that he is not sharing with the rest of the party. Given this environment, it is reasonable to ask if Trump’s barnstorming rallies are harming Republican candidates by pushing Democratic anger and enthusiasm even higher.
It is too early to suggest that Republicans are doomed, but they do have too many fires to put out and not enough time before election day to get it done. Democratic wins are coming. It is just a matter of how many and if it will be enough to flip the House.
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Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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