Popular Democratic former Gov. Phil Bredesen is leading Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn by 2-4 points in a new poll of the US Senate race in Tennessee.
The NBC News/Marist poll found:
Bredesen, the state’s former governor, gets support from 48 percent of likely voters, while Blackburn, who is a current member of Congress, gets 46 percent. Only 5 percent of likely voters say they’re undecided. Among the larger pool of registered voters, Bredesen leads Blackburn by 4 points, 48 percent to 44 percent, but it’s within the survey’s margin of error.
….
Among likely voters in this Tennessee contest, Bredesen leads among Democrats (97 percent to 0 percent), African Americans (86 percent to 8 percent), women (55 percent to 40 percent) and independents (49 percent to 45 percent), while Blackburn leads among Republicans (86 percent to 9 percent), men (54 percent to 40 percent) and whites (53 percent to 42 percent).
Tennessee Still Supports Trump, So What’s Going On?
Unlike in other states, Trump still has a net positive (+4) approval rating (47%-43%) in Tennessee. Trump won the state by more than 25 points in 2016, so the question is how is the Democrat winning in Tennessee? The answer can be found in Phil Bredesen’s approval ratings. Bredesen has a 61% approval rating and a net (+39) approval rating. His disapproval is just 22%. Blackburn has an approval rating of 46% and a net approval rating of (+10). Her disapproval rating is 36%.
Democrats got the perfect candidate for Tennessee
Against a less popular Democrat, Blackburn would probably be running away with the election, but she is running against one of the popular if not the most popular political figure in the state, so she is in for a fight. Phil Bredesen is the perfect example of what having a good candidate can do. Bredesen is perfect for Tennessee, and if Republicans lose the retiring Bob Corker’s Senate, it will make their job of holding on to their slim 51-49 majority very difficult.
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Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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