Donald Trump sell-out and GOP Sen. Ted Cruz is on the run in the Lone Star State, with a new poll showing rising Democratic star Beto O’Rourke pulling to within low single digits.
According to NBC News/Marist, Cruz only leads O’Rourke by four percentage points – 49 to 45 percent among registered voters. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.8 percent.
O’Rourke’s strong showing in deep-red Texas is driven by minorities, women and independent voters, among other groups attracted to the Democrat.
The full breakdown of support via NBC News:
The poll surveyed registered voters, not likely voters
It’s almost important to note that the NBC News/Marist poll only surveyed registered voters, which may not reflect those who plan to turn out on election day. Given the enthusiasm of Democrats, actual voters turning out on Nov. 6 could trend bluer than a pool of registered voters.
As CNN’s Harry Enten pointed out in July, Democrats have been gaining roughly 2 percentage in likely voters models. In a close race, which this is, that could make all the difference in shocking the country and flipping Texas toward the Democrats.
The poll was taken before yesterday’s bombshells
One variable that wasn’t factored into the NBC News polling was yesterday’s stunning news that Donald Trump conspired to commit a federal crime in order to influence the election.
While Ted Cruz isn’t directly associated with Trump’s crimes, the news is likely to have a trickle-down effect on races all across the country. With midterms often a referendum on the president of the United States, this will only further hurt Republicans across the board.
With the blue wave already building and key races hanging in the balance, all while Trump craters before the country’s eyes, red state lawmakers like Ted Cruz are at risk of losing their jobs.
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