Paul Ryan’s seat is already being listed as competitive for Democrats after the Speaker of the House announced that he wouldn’t seek another term.
Dave Wasserman of The Cook Political Report looked at the impact of Ryan’s retirement, “More locally, Ryan’s exit puts his southeastern Wisconsin seat at risk for the first time since his initial election in 1998…But now, Republicans will have to start from scratch without Ryan’s $9.6 million campaign account against a Democrat armed with millions and a blue-collar profile. Democratic Army veteran and former ironworker Randy Bryce, perhaps better known as the “Iron Stache,” has been a national phenomenon on MSNBC and in left-leaning online fundraising circles for months. He ended March with $2.3 million on hand and will have a massive financial head start over the GOP field. But he also sports serious personal liabilities, including late child support payments.”
Randy Bryce has a national profile and was raising a ton of money for a candidate who was taking on the sitting Speaker of the House. Bryce is in a good position, but just like with Democratic candidates in red district special election, Ryan’s district does tilt Republican. When this landscape is combined with the fact that Republicans are already going to be financially stretched thin by trying to defend 240 House seats, it all adds up to what could be a very competitive race for Ryan’s soon to be old seat.
The Republican effort to keep the House got much more difficult with Ryan’s announcement. If the blue wave sweeps the nation in November, it is possible that the seat that once belonged to Paul Ryan could flip to the Iron Stache.
Wasserman has moved Ryan’s district from solid Republican to lean Republican, which signals that Republicans could be for some tough sledding in a district that they were planning on comfortably carrying.
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