There is a special congressional election in southwestern Pennsylvania tomorrow, and it’s been attracting huge amounts of both money and national attention. President Trump himself has flown up there several times to help the Republican candidate try to stave off defeat.
The national Republican Party has spent about 15 times as much money as the Democrats on this special election for a House seat that on the surface appears to be meaningless because:
- it has no impact on who controls the House since Republicans hold a large majority, and
- new redistricting maps will go into effect in Pennsylvania, meaning this congressional seat will likely be eliminated before the November midterm elections.
However, nobody actually thinks this special election is meaningless. Instead, most observers believe it has an unusual amount of importance given the current state of politics in America.
This may be because the results will speak volumes about the strength of each party. The outcome may help predict what will happen in November, when control of the House of Representatives will be decided. Many people think that if the Democrats take over the House then one of the first things they’ll do is start impeachment proceedings against President Trump.
Which helps explain why he is appearing so desperate for a Republican victory.
President Trump carried this conservative district by 20 points in 2016 but an average of recent opinion polls shows the Democrat Conor Lamb leading by one percentage point. This means that even a victory in Tuesday’s election may be bad news for the Republican Party.
What the special elections so far have shown us is that Democrats are outperforming the 2016 results by huge margins, even when they lose. Republicans are afraid of losing in November even if they eke out a narrow win tomorrow.
And history has shown that special election results really do help predict what will happen in the midterm elections which are only eight months away.
It’s important to keep in mind how Republican this district is. There was not even a Democratic candidate in either 2014 or 2016. The last time a Democrat ran here in 2012 he lost by 27 points.
In a neutral year such historical results would mean a guaranteed Republican victory again this year. But there seems to be a shift in public opinion, which many attribute to classic “buyers’ remorse.” Trump voters appear to feel very let down by his presidency, and they do not think he has come through on his promises. In addition, Trump’s approval ratings have gone down because of the Russia investigation and the Stormy Daniels affair. And his tweets.
Ultimately the real importance of this special election may be what it shows about how the Democratic Party will be able to regain strength in the blue collar areas where they once dominated. The 18th District of Pennsylvania is historically both blue collar and Democratic. (It also has some rural areas and some suburban areas, both of which may be ripe for Democratic inroads). There is a six percentage point Democratic advantage in party registration in the district, so Democrats are very hopeful they can turn things around.
On top of that, Pennsylvania is one of the states that flipped from voting for Obama to supporting Trump, which adds another layer of meaning to tomorrow’s results. Political observers will be watching the results to see what they may tell us about the 2020 presidential election.
In conclusion, a close win by the Republican tomorrow may actually be a big victory for the Democratic Party.
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