A new poll from Monmouth University shows Democratic candidate Conor Lamb leading Republican Rick Saccone in all potential turnout scenarios.
According to the Monmouth University Poll, “Lamb holds a 51% to 45% lead over Saccone if turnout yields a Democratic surge similar to voting patterns seen in other special elections over the past year. Another 1% opt for a third party candidate and 3% are undecided. Lamb also has the edge using a historical midterm lower turnout model, albeit by a much smaller 49% to 47% margin. A model with higher turnout overall, similar to a presidential electorate, gives Lamb a 51% to 44% advantage. This marks a turnaround from last month’s Monmouth poll of the race, when Saccone held a small lead in all the models – 49% to 46% in the surge model, 48% to 44% in the high turnout model, and 50% to 45% in the low turnout model.”
3 important things to know about this poll
1). Blue Collar Democrats Are Coming Home To Lamb – Conor Lamb has emphasized local issues and moderate positions while building a strong relationship with working-class blue-collar Democrats who voted for Trump in 2016. The numbers suggested that Lamb has picked up a sizable number of blue-collar Democrats and some Republicans. PA-18 is a (+20) Republican, so the only way that Lamb could hold a lead is if Democrats who voted for Trump came back home to him.
2). Trump Isn’t Helping Saccone – Trump carried this district by 20 points, but voters are divided on the president’s job approval/disapproval is tied at 49%/49%. Trump has dropped a net 4 points in the past. Trump campaigned for Saccone on Saturday and claimed that the Republican would vote with him one hundred percent. That promise may have doomed Republicans to defeat, as there appear to be no Trump coattails in PA-18 for this election.
3). This election is going to be close – It is an old cliche, but it is true. Turnout is everything. If Democrats and Republican Lamb voters strongly turnout, the best case scenario is Conor Lamb. However, what we have witnessed in previous special elections in red areas would suggest that this election will fall closer to the two-point range. It is going to be a close race to Republican advantages in the district, but if everything goes right for Democrats a bigger margin of victory is not out of the question. Either way, Conor Lamb has pulled ahead in this election.
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Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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