Election Day is finally here. Follow the results live to see if Democrat Doug Jones can turn an Alabama Senate seat blue by defeating Republican Roy Moore.
The polling has been all over the map for this election, but the conventional wisdom is that Roy Moore has a built in advantage in deep red Alabama that will take a lot for Jones to overcome.
You can follow the official results here.
The excellent New York Times model is a valuable resource.
Democrat Doug Jones is telling his supporters to stay in line to vote:
Polls close in 30 minutes. Make sure to get to your polling place by 7pm. As long as you’re in line, you can vote. Check https://t.co/MKWnG58S8r to confirm where to vote. pic.twitter.com/TG8K1MeklJ
— Doug Jones (@GDouglasJones) December 13, 2017
Some conservatives are saying that the exit polling shows that Jones has a real chance:
The voter ID and race ID and sub-questions on these exit polls indicate to me that Jones may have a real chance. So do turnout numbers in some African American precincts. So does anecdotal evidence of high write-in numbers.
— Quin Hillyer (@QuinHillyer) December 13, 2017
Heavy African American turnout in Alabama:
CNN exit poll shows the Alabama electorate is 65% white, 30% black, 3% Latino.
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) December 13, 2017
Update: With less than 1% of the vote in, Doug Jones leads Roy Moore by 12 points.
DNC Chair Tom Perez says Democrats were all in on Doug Jones:
Update: With less than 1% of the vote in, Jones leads Moore 62.4% to 37%.
Among non-white women, Doug Jones had 92% support in the exit poll:
AMONG *NON-WHITE* WOMEN IN #ALSEN EXIT POLL, JONES HAS MORE THAN 90% SUPPORT:
Jones 92%
Moore 8%— Steven Portnoy (@stevenportnoy) December 13, 2017
Update: Doug Jones leads Moore 60%-39% with still less than 1% reporting.
Troubling early results for Republicans in counties that Trump won big:
Fairhope Civic Center, one of largest polling places in Baldwin County:
Moore 3911, Jones 3407, Other 193
In 2016, Trump 5021, Clinton 2026 (straight tickets: GOP 2661, Dem 955)#ALSEN
— Alex Schriver (@AlexSchriver) December 13, 2017
It is VERY early, but this is interesting: With 15% in in little Limestone Co, Jones is up 53%-45%
In 2012 race, Moore won this county, 61%-39%
— Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) December 13, 2017
Update: Doug Jones leads Roy Moore by 1.2 points with 4% reporting.
Update with 5% in Moore leads Jones 50.3%-48.5%
At least in Limestone County, Moore is hitting his target number:
Now with 77% of Limestone reporting, Moore ahead by 25 points there https://t.co/dKiOEeBCeM
— John McCormack (@McCormackJohn) December 13, 2017
Doug Jones may have to beat estimates with his base in order to win:
Moore's strength in the white, rural counties with the *most* returns gives him a slight edge in our estimates.
If that holds, the question is whether Jones can beat our estimates in his base counties–metropolitan and majority black areas of Alabama? Not much there yet— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) December 13, 2017
Big votes come in for Doug Jones:
Big vote dump in Jefferson Co (Birmingham) narrows Moore lead to 1.5 pts // and reduces his projected win under 1 pt (via NYT)
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) December 13, 2017
Update: With 21% of the vote in, Moore leads Jones 52%-47%.
Moore fell back under his target number in Limestone County:
Limestone now 25/26 precincts, and Moore lead shrinks back down to 19%. The reason it's so difficult to tell what's happening so far: Alabama's precincts are so racially polarized and quick swings are the rule, not the exception.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) December 13, 2017
Update: With 26% of the vote in, Roy Moore leads 53%-45%.
Update: With 52% of the vote in Roy Moore leads Doug Jones 52%-47%.
Update: Republicans are having a massive turnout problem in white counties:
Folks, our model thinks that the GOP may have a big turnout problem.
The three, white, GOP counties have fallen far short of our turnout estimates–including two under 75% of our estimates.
That's what the big swing in our estimate is about.— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) December 13, 2017
Update: With 86% of the vote in, Democrat Doug Jones has pulled into the lead 49.6% to 48.9%.’
Update: with 88% of the vote in, Doug Jones leads 49.6% to 48.8%.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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