Last updated on July 17th, 2023 at 09:30 pm
A new Monmouth University Poll has found that as the election draws to a close, Hillary Clinton’s lead is growing. Clinton now leads Trump 50%-44%% nationally.
According to the Monmouth University Poll:
Currently, 50% of likely voters support Clinton and 44% back Trump, with 4% supporting Libertarian Gary Johnson and 1% backing Jill Stein of the Green Party. Clinton held a larger 50% to 38% lead before the final presidential debate in mid-October and a slimmer 46% to 42% edge right before the first debate in late September.
Only 4% of registered voters say they learned something in the past ten days that caused them to change their vote. The major movement was a drop in the number of undecided and third party votes and an increase in Trump support.
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Trump currently leads among white voters by 54% to 37% mainly due to a 59% to 30% advantage among white men. He leads by a much smaller margin of 49% to 44% among white women. Clinton has a 79% to 13% advantage among non-white voters.
Regardless of who they support, a majority of voters nationwide (57%) think that Clinton will probably emerge as the victor on Tuesday. Just 28% think Trump will win. Clinton voters (87%) are more confident than Trump voters (62%) that their candidate will be the president-elect. Among those who believe Clinton will triumph, 84% say she will win fair and square while 11% say she will win mainly because the system is rigged. Among those who believe Trump will prevail, 92% say he will win fair and square while 4% say he will win mainly because the system is rigged.
The picture that is emerging is one of Hillary Clinton being the choice of a majority of voters. Over the last two days, four national polls have all shown Hillary Clinton leading by 3 to 5 points. There has not been a single national poll that has shown Trump in the lead. There has not been a single non-partisan state poll, with the exception of CNN in Nevada, which showed Trump flipping any blue swing states.
The 2016 election has been remarkably stable. Hillary Clinton has consistently led. Some Republicans have come home to Trump, which is why this election has tightened to 2012 levels, but as the Monmouth pollsters noted, Trump’s support has been extremely volatile but has never reached 50%.
There is more potential for Trump to underperform his level of polling support than overperform. As for Hillary Clinton, it wouldn’t be much of a surprise if she won 50%-53% of the popular vote. As the election closes, Trump’s polling is moving in the wrong direction, which is a sign that a candidate who was already losing may be heading for defeat.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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