Last updated on July 17th, 2023 at 09:30 pm
The final day of the presidential campaign is here, and the Politicus Presidential Projection map contains more clarity as election day awaits.
The baseline map:
Democrats are still set to begin election night favored to win 258 electoral votes. Trump has still failed to make a dent in Hillary Clinton’s blue wall of electoral votes. The Republican nominee continues to hold scattershot rallies in swing states with no rhyme or reason, while the Clinton campaign is closing with a sharp focus on keeping the door closed to a Trump upset in Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Colorado. The Clinton campaign is also holding events in North Carolina and Florida. All total, the Clinton campaign is holding 16 events today involving candidates and/or surrogates. On the other hand, Trump and Pence are holding nine events in North Carolina, Florida, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The Clinton campaign can cover more ground, and on the final day of the campaign, this could pay dividends in swing states.
Democrats hold the inside track to the White House, and many more roads to get there.
Here is the best case scenario for Trump:
In the election eve best case scenario for Trump, the map gives him every swing state, but Nevada and he still would lose the election. 273-265. This scenario moves North Carolina into the Trump column and ignores the data that shows Hillary Clinton with the inside track on winning Florida.
The map above is the best outcome for Trump without election day blue state upsets. Hillary Clinton isn’t going to lose every swing state, but Nevada.
The reason why Republicans are praying for an upset in Pennsylvania or Michigan is that is the only way that Trump wins on election day. The possibly of everything happening that Trump needs to win is remote at best. If Hillary Clinton wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada, the rest of the map doesn’t matter, because Donald Trump will still lose the election.
Here is the best case scenario for Hillary Clinton:
This is the scenario where everything breaks Hillary Clinton’s way on election night. Early voting powers Hillary Clinton to wins in North Carolina, Nevada, and Florida. Latino early voting in Florida is up 89% over 2012. The Clinton campaign had made getting Latino voters who either hadn’t voted before or sat out 2012 out to the polls in 2016. Ohio is definitely in play for Clinton. As with Nevada, if Hillary Clinton wins Ohio, she doesn’t need to win a single additional swing state to win the White House. An Ohio win along with victories in North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire, and Nevada pushes her electoral college total to 339. Clinton would defeat Trump 339-199, which would better Obama’s 2012 electoral vote total, but less than his 2008 total. An electoral vote total in the 350s would mean that everything has gone right for Democrats. An electoral vote total between 330 and 355 looks like Hillary Clinton’s best case scenario.
The most likely scenario for election day:
The strong Latino early vote in Florida suggests that of all the remaining swing states in question that are on the map, Trump’s odds are the best in North Carolina. However, the race is so close there that I don’t feel comfortable moving it into his column because of potential election day variables. Ohio and Iowa are Trump’s best shots to flip states that President Obama won, but Trump’s odds have decreased in Ohio over the past week. It wouldn’t be surprising if Clinton won Ohio and Trump won North Carolina. A flip of these two states on the map results in Hillary Clinton winning 324 electoral college votes instead of 322.
Without pulling off some shocking upsets, Trump only has a tiny path to the presidency.
Hillary Clinton’s likely electoral college vote total sits around 320. Her low-end range remains 290, and her very worst case scenario is 273 electoral college votes. Hillary Clinton has dozens of possible combinations to win the White House, while Trump has none unless he wins in blue states where he is currently losing.
Hillary Clinton is still in great position to be elected the next President Of The United States, as Trump low on options and even lower on time.
Note: These projections take into account polling averages, early voting statistics, and current polls. They are subject to change and will be updated daily through election day.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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