Last updated on July 17th, 2023 at 09:18 pm
The new jobs report is the perfect aid to Hillary Clinton’s White House bid, while it undercuts Trump’s message that a change election is needed.
On the whole, the economy continues to grow in a solid, and steady way.
Incomes are rising, employment is growing, but long-term unemployment remains a problem.
There is plenty of good news in the jobs report. The most dramatic statistic is the fact that real hourly wages have grown faster over the current business cycle than in any cycle since the early 1970s.
According to the White House, “The chart below plots the average annual growth of real hourly earnings for private production and nonsupervisory workers over each business cycle, including both recessions and recoveries. (Economists prefer comparing across entire business cycles, as they generally represent economically comparable periods.) Since the beginning of the current business cycle in December 2007, real wages have grown at a rate of 0.9 percent a year, faster than in any other cycle since 1973. In fact, since the end of 2012, real wages for non-managerial workers have grown 5.7 percent in total, exceeding the 2.1-percent total real wage growth from the business cycle peak in 1980 to the business cycle peak in 2007—a sign of the remarkable progress made by American families in the current recovery.
The chart:
The jobs report is great news for Hillary Clinton because it is the perfect mix of growth with room for improvement. The economy is not booming yet, which leaves the door open for Clinton to argue that President Obama has done a great job in turning around the economy, but by staying on the same course and making a few tweaks, things can be even better.
It is the perfect argument. Clinton can argue that the American people don’t have to risk the gains that they have been worked so hard for to get an even better economy.
As a Democratic presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton really couldn’t ask for a better jobs report. She can argue both for staying the course and doing more. In campaign speak, this is a win/win for Clinton.
Trump’s problem is that the jobs report contradicts his entire argument for the everything to be thrown out, and the country starting over again. Donald Trump’s extremely negative portrait of the economy doesn’t match reality. Instead of arguing that the economy is ok, but could be better, Trump has gone with the idea that America needs to burn it all down and start all over again.
The new jobs report highlights Trump and the Republican Party refusal to accept that the country hasn’t gone to hell in a handbasket under Obama.
The jobs report guts Trump’s change argument, while boosting Clinton’s claim that things have improved, but could be even better.
The September jobs report is the not the kind of economic status update that hints of a change election. What it suggests is that voters are likely to go into the voting booth and choose to keep moving in the current direction.
In other words, this is a jobs report that can only help Hillary Clinton.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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