New Forecast Gives Democrats A 60 Percent Chance of Winning Back The Senate

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Last updated on July 17th, 2023 at 09:05 pm

It’s not a guarantee that Democrats will reclaim control of the U.S. Senate in November, but a new forecast by The New York Times’ Upshot shows the odds are in their favor.

According to the forecast, which is updated on a daily basis, Democrats now have a 60 percent chance of winning back the Senate this fall.

“Included within this 60 percent is a 17 percent chance that the Senate ends up evenly split with a Democratic vice president providing the tie-breaking vote,” the report reads.

Given the Upshot’s forecast that Hillary Clinton has a near-90 percent chance of beating Donald Trump in November, it would only take 50 seats for Democrats to gain control of the chamber, with potential Vice President Tim Kaine acting as the tie-breaking vote.

“The Democrats need to win five seats among the 11 most competitive races,” according to the report. “Ten of these seats are held by Republicans, and one by a Democrat, Harry Reid of Nevada, who is retiring.”

As I wrote earlier this month, recent polls in these 11 key battlegrounds indicate that many Democratic Senate candidates are beating or closely competing with their Republican rivals – from Illinois and Wisconsin to Indiana and Pennsylvania

Though the map was likely to favor Democrats regardless of who each party’s nominee was, some of this year’s closest races may be shaped by the candidates at the top of the ticket.

Given the unprecedented unpopularity of the Republican nominee and his dismal polling numbers in critical states, the down-ballot impact could hurt Republicans and push some of these close Senate races toward the Democrats.

According to RealClearPolitics, 47 seats currently lean or are safely in the Democratic column, meaning they would need to pick off just three more to have control of the chamber under President Hillary Clinton.

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Sean Colarossi

Sean Colarossi currently resides in Cleveland, Ohio. He earned his Bachelor of Arts degree in Journalism from the University of Massachusetts Amherst and was an organizing fellow for both of President Obama’s presidential campaigns. He also worked with Planned Parenthood as an Affordable Care Act Outreach Organizer in 2014, helping northeast Ohio residents obtain health insurance coverage.

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