Last updated on July 17th, 2023 at 09:03 pm
There has been a growing cry from some Republicans and the mainstream press who echo them that there is no real choice in the 2016 election. The claim has been made that voters dislike both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, but polling reveals that this talking point isn’t reality.
Survey Monkey’s Election Tracking Blog broke down the numbers to reveal that most voters have picked either Trump or Clinton already:
Just over one in four voters (26 percent) actually rate both Clinton and Trump unfavorably. That’s a relatively high proportion, with potential consequences for third-party candidates this year. But most of the rest – the vast majority of voters nationwide – like one candidate and dislike the other. More specifically, they either rate Clinton favorably and Trump unfavorably (38 percent of all voters) or rate Trump favorably and Clinton unfavorably (33 percent).
Yet even that comparison can overstate the number who truly dislike both equally, because many of those who rate both unfavorably still differentiate the intensity of their dislike, with many who strongly dislike one candidate but only somewhat dislike the other.
Once we take all four categories of our favorable rating into account (plus the small percentage who are unable to rate either candidate), we find a more slender 10 percent of voters who dislike both Clinton and Trump with the exact same level of intensity.
The reason why Hillary Clinton’s lead has been so stable for weeks is that 90% of voters have made up their minds that they like or dislike one of the two major party candidates. This fact helps to explain why there won’t be a surge of voters for a third party candidate. There isn’t a large pool of undecided voters within the electorate.
When the two major party candidates are as well known as Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, there is an earlier hardening of favorable/unfavorable perceptions than occurs in an election where the candidates aren’t as well known. Voters have already made up their minds about who they like and dislike.
Donald Trump’s constant reboots and campaign reshuffling probably isn’t going to work because voters feel like they know who he is and what he is all about. Trump has made a career out of selling the Trump name as a brand, and the downside of that for Republicans is that the Trump brand is already known and defined.
Hillary Clinton has been in the public eye for decades, but the Clinton campaign has been able to improve her favorability ratings by understanding that there is an entire generation of voters (millennials) who may not be familiar with her career and need an introduction. It isn’t a coincidence that as her support with millennials has increased, Clinton’s favorability rating has also improved.
Republicans and some in the media are trying to sell the myth that Trump and Clinton are on equal footing because it allows them to perpetuate 2016 election horserace narrative.
The reality is that 2016 isn’t an election where both candidates are equally disliked. The 2016 presidential election is actually a deeply polarized contest taking place before an electorate who have mainly made up their minds about the candidates.
Hillary Clinton’s lead is stable right now, because voters have already picked sides with their hearts, which means that it will probably take something dramatic and unexpected to change the current trajectory of the 2016 presidential election.
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