Last updated on July 17th, 2023 at 07:14 pm
Hillary Clinton’s selection of Sen. Tim Kaine as her running mate has already shifted the Electoral College map, as Kaine’s home state of Virginia has been moved from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic.
According to Sabato’s Crystal Ball:
So one thing Kaine does do is provide a potential boost in Virginia, a state that we have long thought was poorly suited for Trump anyway. The state’s richly-populated and growing Northern Virginia suburbs and exurbs are filled with the kind of Republicans — wealthy and educated — who Trump may have trouble with, and Kaine’s presence on the ticket may give some portion of those voters a reason to consider voting for Clinton. Moreover, Northern Virginia’s overall share of the statewide vote in 2016 seems likely to increase once again, having increased in every presidential cycle since 1980. In 2012, it made up 34% of the state’s vote, and if Northern Virginia goes more Democratic than in 2012, it will be hard for Trump to win. After all, Obama’s 2012 margin over Mitt Romney in Fairfax County — by far the most populated locality in state — made up about three-fourths of his total statewide edge in that election.
In light of the Kaine pick and Trump’s potential difficulties in the Old Dominion, we’re moving Virginia from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic in our Electoral College ratings. If Trump has a path to victory, we don’t see Virginia — which voted closest to the national average in both 2008 and 2012 but appears to be trending Democratic at the presidential level — as a part of it unless he ends up winning a convincing national victory.
In Tim Kaine, Hillary Clinton has picked an experienced, qualified, and well liked running mate. It is difficult to find any of his colleagues on either side of the aisle who don’t like Sen. Kaine.
Strategically, what Clinton did with the Kaine selection was to slam the door virtually shut on any hopes that Republicans might have had of winning Virginia. Kaine’s fluency in Spanish will also help the ticket in Florida with the state’s Hispanic voters.
In contrast, Donald Trump picked a running mate from a red state that he was already going to win, who does not expand the appeal of the Republican ticket in any way. Trump chose a second banana who will stay in the background and laugh at his jokes. Clinton chose a partner who is capable of governing.
When the two choices are placed side by side, it is clear that Hillary Clinton made a smart choice, while Donald Trump made a rookie mistake.
Clinton’s selection of Tim Kaine is immediately paying dividends for Democrats.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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