For the first time, Republicans are publicly admitting that they are expecting a coup attempt against Speaker of the House John Boehner and that Boehner might not have the votes to survive.
But consider what he faces this fall: a quixotic but determined fight to defund Planned Parenthood, a potential government shutdown, a deadline to raise the federal debt ceiling or risk default, and a contentious showdown over highway spending. Boehner’s aides say they expect a vote to oust him, formally known as a motion to vacate the chair.
Boehner allies privately acknowledge the daunting challenge. “Who knows?” one ally said when asked if Boehner could beat back a coup attempt. “I don’t know. I don’t know how you change this dynamic.”
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Though most Boehner allies believe he will be the one leading the charge over the next 15 months, his political future is in others’ hands more than ever before.
Top lawmakers and aides in leadership expect Meadows or another Boehner antagonist to try and force a vote before the end of the year on whether to keep Boehner as speaker. Boehner is nearly certain to lose the support of the 25 lawmakers who voted against him last time, plus a few more who’ve grown frustrated with him. But Democrats would also get a say, and should they vote to keep Boehner as Speaker — opposing him would invite chaos, and it’s anyone’s guess who they’d have to deal with as his replacement.
Boehner is likely to be serving his last term as Speaker, but if there is a rebellion, he might not have the Republican votes to survive. In the midst of what is shaping up to be three weeks of Republican-led Congressional chaos, the GOP civil war is about to explode and go public in the House.
If Rep. Boehner doesn’t allow House Republicans to shut down the government over Planned Parenthood, he will be facing a total rebellion from those within his own caucus. Should Boehner be forced to rely on Democrats to keep his position, it could give the Democratic minority unprecedented power in the House.
Democrats aren’t going to keep Boehner around without getting something in return. Votes on legislation that has bipartisan popularity such as immigration reform and restoring the Voting Rights Act are likely.
House Republicans are gearing up for another one of their semi-annual meltdowns, but this time they may take John Boehner down with them.
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