Contrary to Chuck Todd’s belief that Alison Lundergan Grimes disqualified herself, the new Bluegrass Poll of Kentucky shows Grimes in a position to win as she is deadlocked with Mitch McConnell.
McConnell leads Grimes 44%-43% in the poll, but this margin is well within the 3.9% margin of error. The previous Rasmussen poll that had McConnell leading by eight points looks like an outlier.
McConnell approval rating remains underwater at a net (-9). Thirty-nine percent of respondents approved of the incumbent while 47% disapproved. The barrage of negative ads against the Democrat appear to have taken a toll as her approval rating has dropped to net (-8). Thirty-seven percent approval of Grimes while forty-five percent disapprove.
The Lexington Herald-Leader pointed to some other numbers that suggest a very close election, “In the latest poll, McConnell and Grimes were tied at 43 percent among men. McConnell led among women 44 percent to 43 percent despite Grimes’ effort to highlight votes McConnell has taken to block action on the Paycheck Fairness Act.”
The Grimes campaign said that they are on course for a narrow victory on Election Day. In a statement campaign manager Jonathan Hurst said, “Today’s Bluegrass poll confirms yet again that the 15-month campaign plan from which we have never wavered has Alison poised for a narrow but decisive victory on November 4th against a 30-year entrenched incumbent who – astonishingly – cannot consistently break mid-40’s numbers in public polls as we approach Election Day.”
The Grimes campaign is correct. Mitch McConnell is very, very vulnerable. McConnell’s numbers are terrible for an incumbent, but his endless supply of Koch fueled negative ads has also managed to drag Grimes down.
Chuck Todd’s claim that Grimes disqualified herself from office by not saying if she voted for Obama in 2012 looks as absurd now as the day he said it. Todd was so busy cheerleading for McConnell that he ignored the fundamental dynamics of this election.
Mitch McConnell is not popular. McConnell has run a terrible reelection campaign about nothing. The biased Republican polls have created a false narrative of McConnell momentum that doesn’t exist. These are things that Beltway Boys like Chuck Todd don’t see.
Todd was wrong. Instead of being disqualified, Alison Lundergan Grimes is in a position to be the next senator from Kentucky.
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