A new PPP poll of Kentucky finds Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell tied with Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes in what is shaping up to be a fight for his political survival.
The PPP poll found more trouble for McConnell beyond the 45%-45% tie with Grimes. More Kentucky voters disapprove of McConnell (47%) than approve of him (44%). McConnell has just a 41% approval rating with women, and 49% disapproval rating. McConnell’s approval rating with men is a 47%-45% split. McConnell has a 64% disapproval rating with Democrats, a 70% approval rating with Republicans, and a 53% disapproval rating with Independents. His potential opponent Alison Grimes is largely unknown, but her disapproval/approval among Republicans is just 30%-26%.
Sen. McConnell’s problems go even deeper as the positive advertising campaign that he has tried to run has backfired and made voters less favorable towards him (42%-27%), and his support for cutting taxes for millionaires while advocating for Social Security and Medicare cuts has resulted in voters turning against him by a margin of 50%-23% on these issues. McConnell’s biggest problem may be that Kentucky voters increasingly view him as part of the problem in DC. By a margin of 50%-40% respondents thought that McConnell had become part of the problem in DC, and had forgotten about the people of Kentucky.
Since December, Sen. McConnell has seen his lead over his potential Democratic challenger drop from 7 points to 4 points to a tie. McConnell’s high profile role as the face of Obama Senate obstruction is hurting him with the voters back home. It isn’t that most Kentucky voters support Obama, but that the folks back home are feeling neglected by their senator. Rand Paul is twice as popular as McConnell in the state, and it looks like the GOP leader is vulnerable. If Grimes campaigns as a Kentucky Democrat who is going to put Kentucky first, McConnell could be in big trouble.
However, McConnell has all the perks of power and incumbency at his disposal for his reelection campaign. McConnell and outside groups will spend millions of dollars defining and vilifying Grimes as too liberal for the red Bluegrass state. The odds are heavily in McConnell’s favor, but the Senate Republican leader has done more than enough to alienate his constituents. Grimes is everything McConnell isn’t. She is young, popular, and very well connected with both the state’s coal miners and mine operators. If she runs, and runs with a strong change message, she could pull the upset and retire the turtle.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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