Last updated on May 1st, 2013 at 09:25 am
Republicans are so out of touch with reality that many of them actually think that Mark Sanford his huge unfavorable rating is still the favorite against Elizabeth Colbert-Busch.
This quote from The State tells you all you need to know about how in touch with their constituents the Republican Party is right now, “Sanford is still the favorite, according to many of the state’s politicos, despite a Democratic poll that indicates Colbert Busch leads and a recent allegation by Sanford’s ex-wife that he violated their divorce settlement by trespassing at her home.”
The first sign that Republicans are kidding themselves on the state of the race comes from their dismissal of the PPP poll as a Democratic poll. The problem with this is that PPP is one of the most accurate polling firms in the country, and light years ahead of the Rasmussen polls that Republicans love to rely on.
South Carolina Republicans are dismissing the fact that the Sanford campaign is broke. The national Republican Party refuses to send them any money, and that Sanford himself keeps doing things to remind voters that he really hasn’t changed all that much.
State Republicans may not believe the PPP poll, but they should have listened to people inside their own party who have been screaming from the moment Sanford won the nomination that Colbert-Busch could defeat him. Sanford is not popular within his own party, and the deepest darkest fears within the GOP have always been that conservative voters don’t like Mark Sanford, and they won’t show up to vote for him.
The PPP poll confirmed those fears. Sanford has a 56% rating within the district. Only 66% of those who consider themselves very conservative support him, and Colbert-Busch has the support of 60% of moderates. Speaking of moderates, before liberals and progressives think they are getting a vote in their corner if Colbert-Busch wins, they need to know that the Democrat opposes the assault weapons ban, rejected Obama’s budget proposal, and sees Obamacare as a first draft.
She may be the perfect Democrat to win this race, but if elected she could be very frustrating for liberals and progressives.
Henry Enten crunched the numbers and found that Sanford would need the PPP poll to be off by 9 points in order to win. This only happens 13% of the time. The error would also have to be in Sanford’s favor, which only has a probability of 7%. The odds are that Sanford won’t lose by nine or more. He can probably shave 5 points off of Colbert-Busch’s advantage on Election Day just with the heavy Republican advantage in the district. Even if we give Mark Sanford a 5 point “home field advantage, Colbert-Busch still leads by 4 points.
This election probably won’t be a blowout. Mark Sanford still could win, but he is most definitely not the favorite to win.
Anyone who seriously believes Sanford is the favorite is ignoring reality.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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