Last updated on April 5th, 2013 at 10:42 pm
National and South Carolina Republicans are publicly worrying that Mark Sanford to could lose a solidly Republican House seat to Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch.
Politico reported today that the Republican concerns are that even if they win, they are going to have to dump precious resources into a race that should have been an easy Republican victory, “Sanford’s liabilities could force outside groups to spend precious resources doing his dirty work — all to salvage a district that Mitt Romney won by 18 points. The concern among national Republicans that Colbert Busch could steal the 1st Congressional District seat is so real that they’re prepared to do whatever it takes to shepherd the former Republican governor to victory — including dumping cash into the race, sources told POLITICO. But Sanford forces will have a hard time overwhelming Colbert Busch in the competition for dollars: Her brother is going all out to raise cash for his older sister.”
The Colbert Busch campaign is already hitting Sanford with what Republicans fear most. As soon as the GOP primary runoff ended, the campaign put out a statement hitting Sanford on values, “The families of this district need a representative who they can trust. Mark Sanford simply has the wrong values for our community – whether that’s his terms as Governor or the last time he was in Congress, where he opposed commonsense measures like the Violence Against Women Act, which provides shelters and resources for domestic violence survivors. On issue after issue, Mark Sanford doesn’t reflect the values of South Carolina.”
The first PPP poll of the race showed a dead heat, with Colbert Busch leading Sanford within the margin of error, 47%-45%.
PPP found that the only reason why this race is so close is that voters like Colbert Busch and dislike Sanford. Colbert Busch beats Sanford on favorability rating 45%-31%, but the factor that will most likely decide this election is Sanford’s 58% unfavorable rating. The people of this congressional district really, really, really don’t like Mark Sanford.
The 1st Congressional District is pro-Republican in a way that most blue state Democrats can’t comprehend. Seventy seven percent of the undecideds in the PPP poll voted for Mitt Romney in 2012. Colbert Busch is supported by 87%-89% of Democrats, but Sanford only has 76% of Republicans supporting him.
The outcome of this special election will hinge on what the district’s Republicans do. If Republicans unify around Sanford and give him Colbert’s level of support within his own party, he will win this election. If those Republicans decide to stay home, because supporting a Democrat isn’t an option, Colbert Busch has a chance to pull off the upset.
Even if Colbert Busch doesn’t win, forcing the Republican Party and their outside groups to spend precious resources on this election would be a huge victory for the Democratic Party. If Colbert Busch did win, her time in the House could be short. This district is so heavily Republican that a pro-Democratic outcome would be more a reflection of the voters’ distaste for Sanford than Democratic strength.
The odds are against Elizabeth Colbert Busch winning, but it is always unwise to underestimate the power of dislike.
The biggest reason candidates lose elections is because voters don’t like them. Sanford’s campaign will pour all of their efforts into a two pronged strategy of wrapping himself around God while attacking Colbert Busch as too liberal for the district. (She really isn’t liberal at all. In fact, outside progressive advocacy groups that support her will almost certainly be infuriated by at least one position that she would take in the House. That’s is the price of being a successful Democrat in a red state. She will never be able to pass the purity test that some progressives use to judge candidates.)
We’ll know in the next few weeks if the voters are willing to put their dislike of Sanford aside to support the party. If they can’t get past their anti-Sanford feelings, a very close down to the wire election won’t be surprise.
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