Hillary Clinton is such a strong potential presidential candidate that she leads both Scott Walker and Paul Ryan in their home state of Wisconsin, and Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio in Florida.
According a PPP poll of Florida, Hillary Clinton leads Jeb Bush by 13 points in Florida (53%-40%), Paul Ryan by 13 points (54%-41%), and Marco Rubio by 16 points (56%-40%). These numbers should be troubling for the Republican Party because they came after Marco Rubio was elevated into the national spotlight. Clinton’s lead has expanded by 12 points on Rubio in the last two months. In January, Clinton led Rubio by 4 points. Now, the lead is 16. Former Sec. Clinton now gets 20%-24% of the Republican vote, and 55%-58% of the Independent vote in Florida.
A PPP poll of Wisconsin
revealed the same dynamic at work. Hillary Clinton led Paul Ryan by eight in his home state (51%-43%). She led Gov. Scott Walker by an even larger margin 54%-41%. Moderates in Wisconsin gave Clinton a 71% favorability rating, and Independents gave her a 58% favorability rating.
These numbers are so impressive because Hillary Clinton would begin her presidential campaign leading three of the top contenders for the Republican nomination by double digits in their home states. This is a sign that Hillary Clinton could be a dominant candidate. She seems to have kept her 2008 coalition intact, while adding substantial support from many of the same voters who have twice elected President Obama. Clinton’s strength with moderates mirrors that of President Obama.
If former Sec. Clinton can add the Obama coalition to her already existing base of support she will be difficult for any of the top Republicans to defeat in 2016. I suspect that many Republicans who are toying with the idea of a 2016 bid may not get in, if Hillary Clinton enters the race. She will raise the bar for 2016 on both sides. It is going to take a better candidate than the names the Republican Party is currently floating to defeat Clinton.
Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) looks to have the best shot at running close to her right now in some parts of the country, but he is considered a traitor by many Republicans and may struggle to get the nomination.
The country is still two years away from the 2016 presidential field taking shape, but there looks to be one potential candidate in both parties that is head and shoulders above all others.
That candidate is Hillary Clinton.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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