In every Senate poll released this week, women are powering Democrats to leads because of Brett Kavanaugh. If Republicans keep pushing the Kavanaugh nomination, they will face a backlash that will cost them the Senate.
See if you can spot the trend in this week’s Senate polling:
Sensing a theme in this week’s Senate polls:
FL: Nelson (D) +17 over Scott (R) among women [Quinnipiac]
AZ: Sinema (D) +15 over McSally (R) among women [Marist]
MI: Stabenow (D) +24 over James (R) among women [Mitchell]
WI: Baldwin (D) +27 over Vukmir (R) among women [Marquette]— Gabriel Debenedetti (@gdebenedetti) September 25, 2018
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Republicans Have A Florida Problem Thanks To Brett Kavanaugh
A new Quinnipiac University poll of Florida should have Republicans terrified because the Senate race between Sen. Bill Nelson and Republican Gov. Rick Scott has gone from a 49%-49% tie to a 53%-46% Nelson lead in a week.
What has happened in the last week to change the race? The Brett Kavanaugh sexual assault allegations, and the way that Republicans have tried to railroad the process to stand him.
Here are the numbers via the Quinnipiac University Poll:
Today, women back Sen. Nelson 58 – 41 percent as men are divided, with 51 percent for Gov. Scott and 47 percent for the incumbent.
White voters back Scott 53 – 45 percent. Supporting Nelson are black voters 90 – 10 percent and Hispanic voters 61 – 39 percent.
Republicans back Scott 89 – 10 percent. Nelson leads 94 – 5 percent among Democrats and 56 – 40 percent among independent voters.
Among Florida likely voters who name a candidate choice, 94 percent say their mind is made up.
Nelson gets a 53 – 41 percent favorability rating, while Scott gets a negative 46 – 51 percent favorability rating.
Florida likely voters give President Donald Trump a negative 44 – 54 percent job approval rating.
If Republicans Stand By Kavanaugh, It May Cost Them The Senate
Republicans are already watching several Democratic Senators in red states do better than they expected. Potential seat pickups are beginning to vanish off the board, and when taken in combination with Rep. Beto O’Rourke giving Sen. Ted Cruz the fight of his life in Texas, and a Tennessee Senate race that has a popular former Democratic governor in position to potentially turn Tennessee blue, the last thing that Republicans needed was a pink wave weeks before the election.
A smart political party would dump Brett Kavanaugh, and try to save their tiny two-seat Senate majority.
Republicans are not smart. Since Trump took office, they have been acting like a party that is living on borrowed time.
If Republican Senators vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh, they should know that they are also voting their majority out of office.
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Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
