A new Emerson College poll of the House special election in PA-18 shows that Democrat Conor Lamb has taken a 48%-45% lead over Republican Rick Saccone.
Here is the graphic from Emerson College Pollin:
According to a release from Emerson College Polling, “When asked about level of excitement among voters about the election, 63% of Lamb voters reported being very excited compared to 53% of Saccone voters. Lamb voters also are paying more attention to the race, with 47% reported paying a lot of attention, compared to 42% of Saccone voters. Lamb has a positive image in the district, with 48% saying they have a favorable opinion and a 33% unfavorable rating – 15% of voters had heard of him but had no opinion. Saccone is not as popular with a 44% favorable and a 40% unfavorable rating – 15% of voters had heard of him but had no opinion. Lamb leads 57% to 40% in Allegheny County, which is expected to account for about 42% of the vote. Saccone leads in Westmoreland County 51% to 42%, a county that comprises about 33% of the vote. Saccone leads in Washington County 46% to 41%, which make up about 22% of the vote.”
3 key points about the PA-18 poll
1). The poll is still within the statistical margin of error – The margin of error for the poll was 4.8 points, which means that Conor Lamb’s lead is a statistical tie. The poll doesn’t show Lamb with a lead over the margin of error, which makes this election to use an election night results term, too close to call. Trump won this district by 20 points in 2016, so if Lamb’s lead is 3 points, it will represent a 23 point swing from less than two years ago.
2). Lamb has the momentum – Conor Lamb is the candidate with all of the momentum in the district. Momentum doesn’t necessarily equal victory, especially in a red district, but Lamb has Republicans worried. The tone of the Republican advertising has shifted from touting the GOP tax cuts to relentless personal attacks on Conor Lamb. Republicans can see from their own polling that he is the more personally popular candidate, and whether or not they hold on to this seat will be determined by their last-minute push to lower Lamb’s approval ratings.
3). Trump is an anchor on Republicans as the change message is working – Conor Lamb isn’t campaigning against Donald Trump. His ads never make mention of Trump. Lamb is running a locally based campaign. There is more than a slight hint of the strategy that Doug Jones used in Alabama in Conor Lamb’s approach to the campaign. Donald Trump isn’t an issue by name, but his presence is always here and hanging over the Republican effort to keep this seat. Trump is having a depressing impact on these special elections for Republicans. He isn’t firing up the GOP base. He is motivating Democrats and voters who want change to get involved.
The blue wave is surging in PA-18
As someone who knows the district and the region intimately and personally, I can tell you that PA-18 was solidly Republican real estate, not just in votes, but in attitude and perception. Conor Lamb’s performance signals that there is something real bubbling up in the United States. People are demanding change and getting involved in ways that haven’t been seen in decades. From the students standing up for change to the nation’s gun laws to Time’s Up, and Me Too, people are standing up for change, and a Conor Lamb win would be sign that the cultural storm that is powering the blue wave is coming for Trump and his party this November.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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