Last updated on July 17th, 2023 at 09:29 pm
Both the NBC/WSJ and Politico/Morning Consult final national polls show Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by at least 3 points. The worse news for Trump is that undecided voters are not breaking his direction.
In the NBC/WSJ final poll Hillary Clinton leads Trump 44%-40% in a four-way contest:
NBC News reported:
Looking inside the numbers of the two-way horserace, Clinton is ahead of Trump among women (53 percent to 38 percent), African Americans (86 percent to 7 percent), Latinos (65 percent to 20 percent) and those ages 18-34 (55 percent to 32 percent).
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Clinton leads among those who are early voters, 53 percent to 39 percent, while Trump is up among those who will wait to vote on Election Day, 48 percent to 41 percent.
The interesting point about the NBC/WSJ numbers is that Trump is not winning nationally by a big enough margin to overcome Clinton’s early voting lead. The poll also gives a hint as to where Clinton’s victory margin could fall. She could end up winning by 4 points in an election that might look a great deal like 2012, or she could win by as much as seven points, which would place her firmly with President Obama’s margin of victory in 2008.
The Politico/Morning Consult poll also showed Clinton leading Trump by 3 points nationally (45%-42%). The poll forced undecided voters to pick a candidate, and their choices did not swing the election to Donald Trump, “It turns out that pushing those who still say they “don’t know” to pick a candidate doesn’t have a major impact. Clinton is still up, by the same margin, at 42 percent to Trump’s 39 percent. Johnson got 6 percent, and Stein got 3 percent when “don’t know” was still available.”
When forced to pick, undecided voters don’t choose Trump.
Republicans are pulling out the excuse that losing candidates have used for decades that the polls are wrong, but a picture is being painted of an election where Hillary Clinton has the better early voting operation, ground operation, and get out the vote effort. Clinton is doing a better job than Trump of turning out her base, which means that polling might be underestimating her potential margin of victory.
As for Trump, he is trailing, and undecideds are signaling that they aren’t going his way. Without a miracle, it looks Donald Trump’s odds of victory are decreasing as election day approaches.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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